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26 Aug 2014
Surge in US durable orders expected - RBS
FXStreet (Bali) - A surge in today's headline US durable orders is expected, notes RBS.
Key Quotes
"US durable goods orders may be in for an eye-popping rise in July, largely on the back of a temporary surge in civilian aircraft orders."
"A massive spike in civilian aircraft orders could drive the headline gain in durable goods orders to record levels, given strong bookings in the month overall and an added boost from orders at the Farnborough International Air Show."
"As not all of those bookings may be reflected in the July report, our forecast is for a more “modest” 9.0% m/m gain. Away from headline bookings, however, the July report may be mediocre, with core orders flat in July, dampening the impact from what may be a blockbuster headline gain."
"Given the civilian aircraft orders issue and general strength in manufacturing seen in July, the risks to our forecasts lie on the upside."
"Consumer confidence indexes are released in the US along with Norway, while Japan releases small business confidence as well. The US Conference Board confidence index, relative to its peers, places a greater emphasis on the employment situation. As a result, the slightly higher unemployment rate may result in a modest decline in the US confidence index after three consecutive improvements (RBSe 88, consensus 89.)."
Key Quotes
"US durable goods orders may be in for an eye-popping rise in July, largely on the back of a temporary surge in civilian aircraft orders."
"A massive spike in civilian aircraft orders could drive the headline gain in durable goods orders to record levels, given strong bookings in the month overall and an added boost from orders at the Farnborough International Air Show."
"As not all of those bookings may be reflected in the July report, our forecast is for a more “modest” 9.0% m/m gain. Away from headline bookings, however, the July report may be mediocre, with core orders flat in July, dampening the impact from what may be a blockbuster headline gain."
"Given the civilian aircraft orders issue and general strength in manufacturing seen in July, the risks to our forecasts lie on the upside."
"Consumer confidence indexes are released in the US along with Norway, while Japan releases small business confidence as well. The US Conference Board confidence index, relative to its peers, places a greater emphasis on the employment situation. As a result, the slightly higher unemployment rate may result in a modest decline in the US confidence index after three consecutive improvements (RBSe 88, consensus 89.)."