USD/JPY Price Analysis: Holds onto critical support, risks remain to the downside

• USD/JPY test critical support near 104.50 after the bear cross.
• Hourly RSI flirts with the oversold territory, allowing more declines.  
• 21-HMA at 104.69 to offer immediate resistance.

USD/JPY falls for the third consecutive day on Monday, sitting at five-week troughs near mid-104s, with the technical set up favoring the bears in the near-term.

The spot is clinging onto the one-week-old trendline support, now at 104.48, attempting a tepid recovery in early European trading.

Despite the pause in the decline, the risks remain skewed to the downside amid a bearish Relative Strength Index (RSI) and bear cross spotted on the hourly sticks.

The 50-hourly moving average (HMA) cut the 100-HMA from above, triggering a fresh sell-off from 105.00 levels last Friday.

On a breach of the abovementioned key support, the bears will regain control and target sub-104 levels.

Meanwhile, any recovery attempts could face immediate resistance at the bearish 21-HMA at 104.69 while the spot currently flirts with the 200-HMA barrier at 104.60.

Further up, the 50-HMA barrier at 104.96 could get tested.

USD/JPY: Hourly chart

USD/JPY: Additional levels