Nasdaq 100: New record high does not imply strength – Credit Suisse

Nasdaq 100 is at a new record high as yesterday closed at 9953.75 but is seen highly overextended near-term with 100% of the stocks above their medium-term average, economists at Credit Suisse note.

Key quotes

“Nasdaq 100 has moved to a new record high but is now well above its ‘typical’ extreme - 15% above the 200-day average – now at 9737. We remain of the view the market is highly overstretched and due a consolidation/correction and thus do not look to chase near-term strength from here. Weakness though will be seen as a corrective mover lower.” 

“Resistances are seen at the psychological 10000 level, then 10200/20.”

“Below 9577 is needed to ease the immediate upside bias, but only below 9182 would set a top, with support then seen back at 8860 initially.”

“As of Friday last week, 100% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were above their medium-term 63-day average, something rarely seen. Whilst this points to strong market breadth, it also speaks to the current highly overextended state of the rally.”