Canada CPI Preview: No bearing on the loonie – TDS

CPI data will hold no bearing on CAD, which is preoccupied with developments in oil and risk markets, in the opinion of strategists at TD Securities.

Key quotes

“TD looks for inflation to decelerate sharply in March with headline CPI slipping to 1.1% y/y (down 1.1pp from February), with risks tilted towards an even weaker print.” 

“We expect a similar deceleration in April before CPI bottoms out near 0% y/y in May. Even in a scenario where restrictions are rolled back in May we expect inflation to remain below 1% through Q3.”

“We do not think that CPI will do much to alter the status-quo in CAD trading even if the data surprises on either side of expectations.”

“We are focused on topside USD/CAD; 1.4350 is next major resistance, while 1.4150 should be interim support.”