China keeps the easing cycle at a gradual pace – UOB

Suan Teck Kin, CFA, Head of Research at UOB Group, reviewed the recent move in the Chinese Loan Prime Rate (LPR).

Key Quotes

“China’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR) latest fixings (Wed, 20 Nov) dipped a modest 5bps to 4.15% for the 1Y tenure) and to 4.80% for 5Y and above tenure, which was at the lower end of the range of our call of 5-10bps decline”.

“While it is clear that China’s easing cycle has started, the pace of declines seen in the MLF, 7D reverse repo rate and the latest LPR fixings has been milder than we had anticipated, suggesting the authorities are taking a measured and cautious approach to guide interest rates lower”.

“With the US-China trade tensions appearing to be easing and major central banks on pause mode, we are adjusting our forecasts to factor in a less aggressive downtrend in the LPR. We now project the 1Y LPR at 3.80% by mid-2020, instead of our earlier call of 3.65%”.