Indian Rupee unlikely to gain traction in the coming year - Reuters poll

According to strategists polled by Reuters, the Indian Rupee (INR) will remain on the back foot against the US dollar in the coming year, as the recent rollback of a surcharge on foreign investments is unlikely to have any impact on the local currency.

Key Findings:

“The Aug 29-Sept 4 Reuters poll of over 50 strategists predicted the currency will trade around 72 per dollar over the coming year.

While the median forecast showed the rupee will not retest Tuesday’s low, the 12-month view was the most pessimistic in Reuters polls since December.

That weaker rupee view lines up with a separate Reuters positioning poll which showed short bets for the currency rose to the highest since November 2018 on growing concerns about the U.S.-China trade war.

Emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee, have been hit hard by the intensifying trade war. 

Over 75% of strategists in response to a separate question said expected RBI rate cuts would have no impact on the rupee or be negative. The remainder said easing would benefit the currency.”