USD/TRY: 200-DMA caps declines ahead of Turkish Inflation data, diplomatic meet

• Political tussle between the US and Turkey keeps the pair above 200-DMA despite broad trade political pessimism surrounding the US Dollar.
• Turkish CPI, US PMIs are in the spotlight for fresh direction.

Despite declining against major counterparts, the USD/TRY pair remains strongly supported by the 200-DMA as political tension concerning Syria weigh on the Turkish Lira (TRY) ahead of July month inflation numbers from Turkey. The pair takes rounds to 5.6057 by the press time of Monday’s European open.

Following the increase of Turkish military near the Syrian border, the President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was recently quoted by the Daily Sabah news saying that Ankara has been patient for some time, but that patience has an end. The leader also mentioned that the US and Russia are aware of their march to tame harassment fire.

As a result, the US officials from the Department of Defense (DOD) are planning to meet their Turkish counterpart in Ankara on Monday, the Hill reports.

Other than the diplomatic meet between the US and Turkish officials, July month Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Syria will also be closely observed. Market consensus favors 0.05% of MoM CPI against 0.03% prior with YoY figure likely increasing to 15.74% versus 15.72% earlier.

It should also be noted that the US purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data from ISM and Markit will also entertain investors whereas trade developments surrounding the US and China can keep markets busy.

Technical Analysis

Unless closing below 5.5632 level of the 200-day moving average (DMA), chances of pair’s drop to 5.5100 and then to April month low of 5.4175 are less likely, which in turn keeps 5.6300 and 50-DMA level of 5.7395 on buyers’ radar.