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27 May 2014
Finally, key events are looming - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that the day ahead, from a global perspective today is still relatively data light but there is certainly more to focus on than there was yesterday.
Key Quotes:
"Among the main highlights of the day is US durable goods orders for April. Consensus is for a 0.7% MoM decline following a hefty 2.5% rise in the previous month. As always, this report has many ‘layers’ beneath the headline total: orders ex-transport are seen flat MoM after March’s 2.1% increase; capital goods orders ex-defence are seen -0.3% MoM after a 2.9% rise; and such capitals goods orders actually shipped are expected -0.1% MoM after a revised 1.5% jump last time round. Overall, the message is expected to be of a weaker print following an exceptionally strong one – although notably the pattern in the YoY trend in core orders shipped is still quite disappointing for this stage of a recovery".
"We also see US house prices with both the FHFA house price index for March (consensus 0.5% MoM after 0.6% in February) and the S&P/Case Shiller 20-city house price index for the same month – notably consensus in the latter is 0.7% MoM, down from 0.8% in February, and 11.8% YoY, down from 12.9%, and it will be interesting to see if the report continues to see signs that the market is cooling, which it suggested last month".
"We also see the US Markit services PMI (consensus 54.5, down from 55.0) and May US consumer confidence, which is expected to pick up slightly from 82.3 to 83.0 – though the much smaller Michigan confidence survey was far weaker than expected in the month, dropping back rather than rising, which does suggest a slight downside risk here".
Key Quotes:
"Among the main highlights of the day is US durable goods orders for April. Consensus is for a 0.7% MoM decline following a hefty 2.5% rise in the previous month. As always, this report has many ‘layers’ beneath the headline total: orders ex-transport are seen flat MoM after March’s 2.1% increase; capital goods orders ex-defence are seen -0.3% MoM after a 2.9% rise; and such capitals goods orders actually shipped are expected -0.1% MoM after a revised 1.5% jump last time round. Overall, the message is expected to be of a weaker print following an exceptionally strong one – although notably the pattern in the YoY trend in core orders shipped is still quite disappointing for this stage of a recovery".
"We also see US house prices with both the FHFA house price index for March (consensus 0.5% MoM after 0.6% in February) and the S&P/Case Shiller 20-city house price index for the same month – notably consensus in the latter is 0.7% MoM, down from 0.8% in February, and 11.8% YoY, down from 12.9%, and it will be interesting to see if the report continues to see signs that the market is cooling, which it suggested last month".
"We also see the US Markit services PMI (consensus 54.5, down from 55.0) and May US consumer confidence, which is expected to pick up slightly from 82.3 to 83.0 – though the much smaller Michigan confidence survey was far weaker than expected in the month, dropping back rather than rising, which does suggest a slight downside risk here".