US: Focus on University of Michigan consumer sentiment – Nomura

The headline index of the University of Michigan consumer survey fell 1.1pp to 97.1 in July and inflation expectations at the one-year horizon ticked down 0.1pp to 2.9% while those at the 5-10 year horizon declined by 0.2pp to 2.4%, notes the research team at Nomura.

Key Quotes

“The preliminary survey results suggest that consumer sentiment may be sensitive to concerns about tariffs. The report indicated that “[the proportions of respondents citing] negative concerns about the impact of tariffs have recently accelerated, rising from 15% in May, to 21% in June, and 38% in July.” Respondents who expressed negative views of the tariffs expressed more bearish expectations on future conditions with a higher expected inflation rate. For the final estimate for July, we expect consumers to maintain increased concerns about tariffs.”