US: Q2 GDP likely increased at an annualized pace of 4.6% - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the BEA to report this Friday that US real GDP increased at an annualized pace of 4.6% q-o-q in Q2.

Key Quotes

“Part of the strength is related to a sharp pickup in exports as imports slowed. However, a substantial amount of the firming in Q2 stems from accelerating consumer spending.”

“We expect GDP growth to moderate for the rest of this year but to remain well-above potential as rising federal spending and tax cuts continue to propel the US economy.”

“Incoming data last week indicates strong momentum heading into Q3, albeit at a level slightly below that of Q2. Industrial production rebounded in June as factory activity picked up during the month. In addition, early indicators on manufacturer sentiment during July point to continued growth from the manufacturing sector despite some concern in the forward looking indicators. On the downside, core (“control”) retail sales moderated somewhat in June despite overall retail sales increasing at a solid pace.”