Global growth slows, headwinds build - ANZ

The ANZ Global Lead Index (GLI) and Growth Trackers suggest momentum has passed a peak as headwinds are building, notes the research team at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“Avoiding a trade war is essential to our outlook for solid growth.”

“Although cyclical pressures continue to build, there are scant signs of it manifesting itself into a pickup in core inflation.  Higher oil prices will feed through into higher headline inflation, but the second round effects are likely limited.”

“Financial conditions remain accommodative. We expect the Fed to continue on its path of gradual normalisation. Elsewhere we expect central banks to adopt a more cautious approach to policy settings, with normalisation the likely objective at some point.”