AUD/JPY - Will test 200-DMA of 83.04?

AUD/JPY clocked a 5-day high of 82.94 on Wednesday and currently trades around 82.80 levels. The 200-DMA is just a whisker away at 83.04 levels.

Gold (one of Australia’s top exports) retreated to $1287 on Comey relief. The AUD/USD pair appears to have followed suit. The spot has backed off from the previous day’s high of 0.7567 (highest level since Apr 25) to trade around 0.7537 levels.

However, the AUD/JPY has been relatively resilient; given the Comey relief also lifted the pressure of the USD/JPY pair, which is currently attempting to chew through the key psychological hurdle of 110.00 levels.

Focus on Australia and China trade data

Australia’s trade surplus is expected to narrow to $1.9 billion in April, down from $3.1 billion in March. Australia trade report will be followed by China international trade statistics. The China trade surplus is seen widening to USD 46.32 billion, up from USD 38.05 billion in April. The exports are seen rising 7%, while the imports are seen decelerating to 8.5% from 11.5%.

A better-than-expected Aussie trade surplus and strong Chinese import and export numbers could help the AUD/JPY break above the 200-DMA level of 83.04.

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

A break above 200-DMA of 83.04 won’t be enough as the next resistance is lined up at 83.14 (50-DMA), which, if breached, could yield a rally to 83.88 (May 25 high). On the downside, support is seen at 82.54 (5-DMA + 10-DMA), under which the spot could target 81.77 (May 18 high).

Note – The 50-DMA is about to cut through the 200-DMA from the above (death cross).This is a lagging indicator, thus could a signal the rally in the pair is about to gather pace.