US: Expect headline and private NFP to come in at 200K for the month – RBC CM

In view of analysts at RBC Capital Markets, the most relevant and timely “hard data” on the employment front suggests that US job growth continued to hum along in May which suggests that headline and private NFP to come in at 200K for the month.

Key Quotes

“Not only are initial jobless claims still plumbing the depths near alltime lows (LF-adjusted), but withheld tax receipts (the stuff that comes out of your paycheck) are running near 7% above year-ago levels. This suggests that not only is firing extremely limited, but paychecks are increasing (firming headcount, increased pay, or some combination thereof). Accordingly, we expect headline and private NFP to come in at 200K for the month. The unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 4.4% following a sharp tick lower last month.”