UK: A lot to watch out before the polls – Westpac

Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that a lack of core “hard” data releases into the 8th June election does not mean that there will not be plenty for markets to watch.

Key Quotes

“Surveys will be of increasing interest given the recent vulnerabilities building around private consumption as housing surveys slip and retail activity shows signs of faltering. This will be a key area of interest for BoE into its midJune meeting.”

“The appalling terror attack caused a pause in electioneering, but the election will be the key factor into 8th June. May’s Tory govt. lead in polls has slipped more than anticipated, but markets expect the polls to swing back to the Conservatives and allow them to secure a substantial increase in their majority. Should the polls fail to widen, GBP’s recent firmness may falter, especially against EUR.”

“Brexit concerns should resume post election and cap GBP/USD at the upper end of a perceived 1.20-1.32 range.”