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26 Apr 2016
AUD/USD: Interim peak already formed – Commerzbank
Research Team at Commerzbank, notes that the AUD/USD’s recent rally came close to our .7850 target level (38.2% retracement of move down from 2014), and we are increasingly viewing this as a potential interim peak.
Key Quotes
“We have a TD perfected set up on the recent high and a divergence of the daily RSI; both of these suggest failure. Intraday rallies should terminate .7740 and ideally we would like a close below last week’s low at .7597 to alleviate downside pressure.
Below .7597 attention could revert to support, namely .7477, the late March low, and .7416 (16th March low). The October and November highs lie at .7384/81.
Should the .7836/50 area unexpectedly be bettered, we would have to allow for the .8030/50 base measurement to be reached.
Recommended Trade: Sell at market, add to shorts at .7465, stop at .7840 and target at .7505.
Short Term Trend (1-3 weeks): Offered below .7836
Long term trend (1-3 months): Scope for .8030/50.”
Key Quotes
“We have a TD perfected set up on the recent high and a divergence of the daily RSI; both of these suggest failure. Intraday rallies should terminate .7740 and ideally we would like a close below last week’s low at .7597 to alleviate downside pressure.
Below .7597 attention could revert to support, namely .7477, the late March low, and .7416 (16th March low). The October and November highs lie at .7384/81.
Should the .7836/50 area unexpectedly be bettered, we would have to allow for the .8030/50 base measurement to be reached.
Recommended Trade: Sell at market, add to shorts at .7465, stop at .7840 and target at .7505.
Short Term Trend (1-3 weeks): Offered below .7836
Long term trend (1-3 months): Scope for .8030/50.”