CAD: CPI likely higher by 0.5% m/m in March - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the seasonal factors and a rebound in gasoline prices are expected to push the Canada’s all-items CPI higher by 0.5% m/m in March (the seasonally adjusted index is forecast to have increased by a far more modest 0.1%).

Key Quotes

“By virtue of a strong base year effect, headline inflation is forecast to decelerate to 1.2%. Core prices should be a touch more benign, though seasonal influences will still drive a forecasted 0.4% m/m advance. The seasonally adjusted series should be more benign at just 0.2%.

A similar base year effect should see year-ago core inflation decelerate to 1.7% from the 1.9% pace set in the prior month. Extrapolating to the quarter as a whole corresponds to Q1 headline and core inflation running at 1.5% and 1.9% respectively which is in line with the revised forecasts presented by the Bank of Canada in the April MPR.”