NZD/USD: headed for a break of ascending support line?

NZD/USD was making a modest recovery overnight on the GDT price index that arrived as +2.1% vs -2.9% prior with the average auction price arriving as $2188 vs $2190 prior.

Antipodean price action, NZD wins - Westpac

"NZD/USD jumped from 0.6770 to 0.6805 after a 2% bounce in GDT dairy auction prices (curious, given futures had earlier predicted a 1% bounce)", as noted by analysts at Westpac. Thereafter, as the news was digested over the hourly time frame, the price was up to test the 38.2% retracement area on the 0.68 handle while the 200 sma on the hourly sticks at 0.6809 capped the bulls attempts for the price to then drift for the remainder of the session on the 0.68 handle. 

Meanwhile, we have a light events calendar ahead for today and outside of any major surprises from Asia or in the Chinese services PMI, a period of consolidation might be the theme ahead of the FOMC minutes from the Mar 15-16 meeting that is due to be released in the U.S. shift later on.

NZD/USD levels

Technically, NZD/USD has been exposed to the downside since 0.6900 gave out at the start of April post the nonfarm payrolls event and has been in a decisive bear trend town to the 20 dma at 0.6768 where the price recovered and moved into a period of consolidation. The channel from late Jan's business remains in tact but price is starting to erode the support line and a break below the 0.6570 zone could provoke a full retracement of the channel.

Commodities major role in the FX space