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23 Feb 2016
AUD/USD should find it hard against 0.7245/50 - JPMorgan
According to JPMorgan, AUD/USD should find it hard against 0.7245/50 as the area converges with the downtrendline from the December high, along with the early-February peak.
Key Quotes
"The broad range for AUD/USD continues to develop despite signs of a potential bearish shift. With the price action having proved to be more resilient than expected, the current consolidation phase seems likely to persist as the critical parameters remain well-defined.
For the short term setup, additional strength into the .7220/45 area cannot be ruled out, but we expect the pair to struggle against this area as it includes the downtrendline from the December high, along with the early-February peak.
Only above here allows for a closer test of the medium term range highs in the .7385/.7440 zone. This strongconfluence of resistance includes the range highs from August and the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May peak and the 200-day moving average and should continue to define a medium term ceiling.
The short term downside risks should get back on track on a violation of the .6970/75 area which includes the February low. Breaks should set the stage for a closer test of the .6829 January low.
Given themedium term downside bias, we continue to see potential for an extension into medium term support levels in the .63/.60 zone. This area represents the 76.4% retracement of the rally from the 2001 cycle low, as well as the 2008/2009 lows"
Key Quotes
"The broad range for AUD/USD continues to develop despite signs of a potential bearish shift. With the price action having proved to be more resilient than expected, the current consolidation phase seems likely to persist as the critical parameters remain well-defined.
For the short term setup, additional strength into the .7220/45 area cannot be ruled out, but we expect the pair to struggle against this area as it includes the downtrendline from the December high, along with the early-February peak.
Only above here allows for a closer test of the medium term range highs in the .7385/.7440 zone. This strongconfluence of resistance includes the range highs from August and the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the May peak and the 200-day moving average and should continue to define a medium term ceiling.
The short term downside risks should get back on track on a violation of the .6970/75 area which includes the February low. Breaks should set the stage for a closer test of the .6829 January low.
Given themedium term downside bias, we continue to see potential for an extension into medium term support levels in the .63/.60 zone. This area represents the 76.4% retracement of the rally from the 2001 cycle low, as well as the 2008/2009 lows"