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22 Oct 2013
Flash: GBP/USD needs a break above 1.6315/23/79 - JPMorgan
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to Paul Meggyesi and Thomas Anthonj, FX Strategists at JP Morgan, as long as GBP/USD remains below 1.6315/23/79 (weekly-monthly trend/last top) there will be no confirmation that the pre-2009 bear-trend had reached its exhaustion point at 1.3504 in January 2009.
Key Quotes
"Only above 1.6379 we’d see room to test and break above former highs at 1.6748 and at 1.7044 for a minimum extension to 1.7332 (50%) and to 1.7768 (C = A). A decisive break below 1.5819 (minor 38.2 %) would on the other hand signal that a deeper setback to 1.5155/02 (int. 76.4 %/pivot) or the resumption of the long-term downtrend towards the T-zone on big scale between 1.4339 and 1.4228 (76.4 %/2010 low) is on its way."
"In the short-run, we are now focusing on an inner range between 1.6164/80 (pivot/minor 76.4 %) and 1.5915/14 (double-bottom) as a breakout of this range would at least give hints which side of the broader ranger between 1.6315/23/79 and 1.5819 is going to be tested next. Only outside the latter though we'd either look for a straight extension to 1.6748 or a straight selloff to key-supports at 1.5477/36/29 (200 DMA/pivots) and at 1.5155/02."
Key Quotes
"Only above 1.6379 we’d see room to test and break above former highs at 1.6748 and at 1.7044 for a minimum extension to 1.7332 (50%) and to 1.7768 (C = A). A decisive break below 1.5819 (minor 38.2 %) would on the other hand signal that a deeper setback to 1.5155/02 (int. 76.4 %/pivot) or the resumption of the long-term downtrend towards the T-zone on big scale between 1.4339 and 1.4228 (76.4 %/2010 low) is on its way."
"In the short-run, we are now focusing on an inner range between 1.6164/80 (pivot/minor 76.4 %) and 1.5915/14 (double-bottom) as a breakout of this range would at least give hints which side of the broader ranger between 1.6315/23/79 and 1.5819 is going to be tested next. Only outside the latter though we'd either look for a straight extension to 1.6748 or a straight selloff to key-supports at 1.5477/36/29 (200 DMA/pivots) and at 1.5155/02."