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3 Nov 2015
RBA: Close call before the races - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - ANZ Economists don’t expect the RBA to move on rates later today, although they still believe the cash rate is headed lower over the first half of next year, the bank notes.
Key Quotes
"The focus just before the Melbourne Cup will be on the RBA’s cash rate decision. It is a close call, but we don’t expect the RBA to move. The market has priced in a 44% chance."
"A more explicit easing bias in today’s statement is possible given the weak inflation numbers last week. While economic growth is sub-trend, there are positive signs, especially in the business surveys."
"We expect the RBA’s ‘glass half-full’ outlook on the economy to remain intact. The out-of-cycle moves to increase mortgage rates is unlikely to persuade the RBA to lower the cash rate today."
"Rather, the RBA will be interested to see how this plays out, along with the housing market more broadly."
"We still believe the cash rate is headed lower over the first half of next year, when we forecast slowing momentum in the current drivers of economic growth."
Key Quotes
"The focus just before the Melbourne Cup will be on the RBA’s cash rate decision. It is a close call, but we don’t expect the RBA to move. The market has priced in a 44% chance."
"A more explicit easing bias in today’s statement is possible given the weak inflation numbers last week. While economic growth is sub-trend, there are positive signs, especially in the business surveys."
"We expect the RBA’s ‘glass half-full’ outlook on the economy to remain intact. The out-of-cycle moves to increase mortgage rates is unlikely to persuade the RBA to lower the cash rate today."
"Rather, the RBA will be interested to see how this plays out, along with the housing market more broadly."
"We still believe the cash rate is headed lower over the first half of next year, when we forecast slowing momentum in the current drivers of economic growth."