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22 May 2015
AUD/USD near-term range-play expected – Westpac
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Rennie of Westpac, expects AUD/USD to remain in the 0.7850-0.8000 range through next week, but gradually weaken towards 0.73 by year-end.
Key Quotes
“We see some of the factors that have driven AUD higher recently reversing. We get the sense that a reasonable amount of A$ shorts have been covered; yield spreads have started to stabilise as carry traders return; iron ore has had a reasonable drop from last week's high of $63 to Thursday's low of $57.12 and finally, the US$ has had a reasonable bounce despite the Fed's minutes from the April 28/29 giving a fairly clear signal that rates will not be raised in June.”
“Key in the near term for the A$ will be what happens to these four factors. Will we continue to see speculative demand for the A$ continuing; will yield spreads continue to move in favour of the A$; will commodity prices continue to rise and will the US$ continue to recover its recent sell off?”
“We see AUD in the near term in something of a range near term.”
“The AUD is likely to remain in a 0.7850 to 0.8000 trading range through next week, but Westpac continues to forecast further weakness in the currency as the year progresses.”
“We expect to see AUD trading down around 0.73 by year end.”
Key Quotes
“We see some of the factors that have driven AUD higher recently reversing. We get the sense that a reasonable amount of A$ shorts have been covered; yield spreads have started to stabilise as carry traders return; iron ore has had a reasonable drop from last week's high of $63 to Thursday's low of $57.12 and finally, the US$ has had a reasonable bounce despite the Fed's minutes from the April 28/29 giving a fairly clear signal that rates will not be raised in June.”
“Key in the near term for the A$ will be what happens to these four factors. Will we continue to see speculative demand for the A$ continuing; will yield spreads continue to move in favour of the A$; will commodity prices continue to rise and will the US$ continue to recover its recent sell off?”
“We see AUD in the near term in something of a range near term.”
“The AUD is likely to remain in a 0.7850 to 0.8000 trading range through next week, but Westpac continues to forecast further weakness in the currency as the year progresses.”
“We expect to see AUD trading down around 0.73 by year end.”