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15 Jul 2013
AUD/USD protected by 0.90 bids, at mercy of China GDP
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - With the AUD/USD breaching the well-guarded 0.900 handle in the last US session on Friday, a key risk event for the Antipodean currency comes later today in Asia - 2GMT - as China releases its Q2 growth figures.
China GDP a must follow
According to John Noonan, Head of IFR Markets in Australia, "Economists have cut 2013 China GDP forecasts from the start of the year, but suggestion from China's FinMin Mr. Lou that China could live with 6.5% to 7.0% stunned the markets." As per the latest survey conducted by Reuters, markets are expecting China's GDP in Q2 to stand at 7.5% YoY.
Noonan expands, "The expectations bar is very low, which might prove to be a positive when all said and done." However, with China's FinMin comments on the backdrop, Noonan thinks that "a 7.5% result would be greeted with relief and would likely send Asian risk assets higher and result in a hefty AUD recovery." The IFR Analyst concludes by saying that "even a slight downside miss to GDP is unlikely to shake the markets too hard as a slight miss has been priced in."
AUD/USD technical outlook
As Sean Lee from FXWW reports, "AUD/USD bids near .9000 were very large on Friday evening but it remains to be seen whether they have stayed live or not." The key supportive mean heading into the Chinese GDP data is the 0.9040 area - July 1, 4 lows - ahead of the round number. On the upside, offers around 0.91 up to 0.9130 - intraday level - ahead of reliable 0.92 resistance - last Asian/Europe highs - should initially cap prices.
China GDP a must follow
According to John Noonan, Head of IFR Markets in Australia, "Economists have cut 2013 China GDP forecasts from the start of the year, but suggestion from China's FinMin Mr. Lou that China could live with 6.5% to 7.0% stunned the markets." As per the latest survey conducted by Reuters, markets are expecting China's GDP in Q2 to stand at 7.5% YoY.
Noonan expands, "The expectations bar is very low, which might prove to be a positive when all said and done." However, with China's FinMin comments on the backdrop, Noonan thinks that "a 7.5% result would be greeted with relief and would likely send Asian risk assets higher and result in a hefty AUD recovery." The IFR Analyst concludes by saying that "even a slight downside miss to GDP is unlikely to shake the markets too hard as a slight miss has been priced in."
AUD/USD technical outlook
As Sean Lee from FXWW reports, "AUD/USD bids near .9000 were very large on Friday evening but it remains to be seen whether they have stayed live or not." The key supportive mean heading into the Chinese GDP data is the 0.9040 area - July 1, 4 lows - ahead of the round number. On the upside, offers around 0.91 up to 0.9130 - intraday level - ahead of reliable 0.92 resistance - last Asian/Europe highs - should initially cap prices.