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27 Feb 2015
EUR/CHF has bottomed – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Research Analysts at Nomura, favours going long on EUR/CHF, expecting the pair to move towards 1.10 by end-September.
Key Quotes
“We expect the CHF to react to weak inflation and confidence data going forward, which will gradually weaken the CHF.”
“In addition, gradual normalization in the financial market with lower yields will encourage more active CHF carry trades into H1 this year.”
“We now see a smaller downside risk in EUR/CHF, and we believe EUR/CHF has bottomed.”
“In the near future, we see a small risk of disappointment from the SNB if CHF weakness continues into the March meeting. The 19 March SNB meeting is the most important near-term event, and we will closely monitor any indications of the next policy step of the SNB into the meeting.”
“We increase our end-March EUR/CHF forecast to 1.07 from 0.98 and we now expect EUR/CHF to recover 1.10 by end-September.”
“We still prefer USD/CHF long positions to EUR/CHF positions, as we expect the USD to appreciate broadly against European G10 FX. We are currently flat on CHF trading, but we look to add CHF short exposures, especially against the USD.”
Key Quotes
“We expect the CHF to react to weak inflation and confidence data going forward, which will gradually weaken the CHF.”
“In addition, gradual normalization in the financial market with lower yields will encourage more active CHF carry trades into H1 this year.”
“We now see a smaller downside risk in EUR/CHF, and we believe EUR/CHF has bottomed.”
“In the near future, we see a small risk of disappointment from the SNB if CHF weakness continues into the March meeting. The 19 March SNB meeting is the most important near-term event, and we will closely monitor any indications of the next policy step of the SNB into the meeting.”
“We increase our end-March EUR/CHF forecast to 1.07 from 0.98 and we now expect EUR/CHF to recover 1.10 by end-September.”
“We still prefer USD/CHF long positions to EUR/CHF positions, as we expect the USD to appreciate broadly against European G10 FX. We are currently flat on CHF trading, but we look to add CHF short exposures, especially against the USD.”