USD/JPY to push ahead to 152 and prompt aggressive FX intervention – ING

USD/JPY is higher after the BoJ made the lightest of tweaks to its Yield Curve Control policy. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

The BoJ's in no rush to exit YCC

One gets the sense from the BoJ that it is wary of JGB yields spiking, and that is why it is acting so very carefully here. At the same time, the change in inflation forecasts was insufficient to support views of an exit to YCC policy. CPI ex-food – which is BoJ's target – is still forecast at 1.7% in FY25 – i.e., not above 2% in a stable manner.

Today's BoJ meeting has not triggered the reset on how we view the Yen and the risk is now that USD/JPY pushes ahead to 152 and prompts the central bank into aggressive FX intervention.