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23 Sep 2014
Downside risks mount for AUD - RBS
FXStreet (Bali) - Downside risks are mounting for the Aussie, notes Greg Gibbs, FX Strategist at RBS.
Key Quotes
"Softer US data and broader concerns over a weaker global economic outlook, apparent in weaker commodities and equities, may contribute to the first significant retracement in the USD/JPY after its rapid month-long rally."
"The EUR may also benefit from reluctance by the ECB to take further easing steps at this time after the limited response to its first LTRO last week. Fears of the 'Japanification' of Europe can trigger some recovery in EUR (fears of deflation, higher real yields and structural current account surplus)."
"However, we remain focussed on long USD strategies, predicting the US economy will still remain relatively robust and monetary policy divergence between majors will build further over the next six months."
"More coordinated weakness in commodity indicators and macroprudential risks add to downside risk for the AUD. We see it breaking the lows of last year and falling to the low .80s over the next six months.
Key Quotes
"Softer US data and broader concerns over a weaker global economic outlook, apparent in weaker commodities and equities, may contribute to the first significant retracement in the USD/JPY after its rapid month-long rally."
"The EUR may also benefit from reluctance by the ECB to take further easing steps at this time after the limited response to its first LTRO last week. Fears of the 'Japanification' of Europe can trigger some recovery in EUR (fears of deflation, higher real yields and structural current account surplus)."
"However, we remain focussed on long USD strategies, predicting the US economy will still remain relatively robust and monetary policy divergence between majors will build further over the next six months."
"More coordinated weakness in commodity indicators and macroprudential risks add to downside risk for the AUD. We see it breaking the lows of last year and falling to the low .80s over the next six months.