USD/MXN: Peso on a weakening path next year – MUFG

The Mexican Peso showed a sizeable weakening in September. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze MXN outlook.

Tight monetary policies abroad and Mexican presidential elections to weigh on MXN

Although we expect MXN to remain supported by high carry-trade returns, we keep our outlook for MXN weakening path next year due to concerns over a global economic slowdown amid tighter monetary policies for longer worldwide. Such a scenario might spark some risk-off, thus hitting the high MXN. 

At last, investors might gradually focus on the presidential election scheduled for June 2024, which might bring some concerns over the next steps of economic policies.

USD/MXN – Q4 2023 17.40 Q1 2024 17.50 Q2 2024 17.60 Q3 2024 17.70